Last week, a very well-respected real estate analytics firm surprised many with their home price projection for the next twelve months. CoreLogic, in their latest Home Price Index said:
“The economic downturn that started in March 2020 is predicted to cause a 6.6% drop in the HPI by May 2021, which would be the first decrease in annual home prices in over 9 years.”
The forecast was surprising as it was strikingly different than any other projection by major analysts. Six of the other eight forecasts call for appreciation, and the two who project depreciation indicate it will be one percent or less.
Here is a graph showing all of the projections:There’s a simple formula to determine the future price of any item: calculate the supply of that item in ratio to the demand for that item. In housing right now, demand far exceeds supply. Last week mortgage applications to buy a home were 33% higher than they were at the same time last year. The available inventory of homes for sale is 31% lower than it was last year. Normally, these numbers should call for homes to continue to appreciate.
Because of the uncertainty with the pandemic, any economic prediction is extremely difficult. However, looking at the limited supply of homes for sale and the tremendous demand for housing, it is difficult to disagree with the majority of analysts who are calling for price appreciation.
Moving Forward Together
We’re in uncharted territory with Covid-19. The medical facts about the virus change daily. Meanwhile, the media generates a constant stream of fear inducing headlines. This combination can be overwhelming. To stay grounded during these uncertain times, it serves us well to recall a line delivered by F.D.R during his inauguration speech in 1933 – “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” This phrase, at the height of the great depression, gave people hope and a new way to look at a world wide depression that had been going on for three years. Ultimately, this phrase served as one of the pillars that led to the rebuilding of the economy.
Our mission is to provide you with accurate timely information about the real estate market. We follow the best minds in the real estate and share that information with you as it becomes available. Armed with actionable information, you can set aside fear and actively plan for your future. To that end, we’re here for you. Let’s get together for an online meeting to review the market and how it relates to your situation. To be clear this isn’t a sales call — this is one of the ways that our team gives back in these challenging times. To schedule a chat, click the Let’s Talk link and schedule a time that works for you: Let’s Talk.
Like you, we’re counting the days till life returns to normal and we can once again go to Powell’s Books, our favorite restaurants, the beach, the mountains, and all the activities that make Portland an incredible place to live. In the meantime, we’re here for you … stay safe out there … James Bradley