We’re currently in the longest economic recovery in U.S. history. In response, experts are projecting when the next economic slowdown (recession) could occur.
Two years ago, 67% of the economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) for the Economic Forecasting Survey predicted we would have a recession no later than the end of this year (2020). The same study conducted just three months ago showed more than one-third of the economists still projecting an economic slowdown right around the corner.
Naturally, this news caused concern among consumers–as evidenced by a recent survey done by realtor.com that shows 53% of home purchasers (first-time and repeat buyers) currently in the market believe a recession will occur by the end of 2020.
But wait! The experts are changing their minds….
Now, in an article earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) revealed only 14.3% of economists now believe we’re in danger of a recession occurring this year (see graph below):The WSJ article strongly stated:
“The U.S. expansion, now in its 11th year, will continue through the 2020 presidential election with a healthy labor market backing it up, economists say.”
This optimism regarding the economy was repeated by others as well.
“Just months after almost everyone on Wall Street worried that a recession was just around the corner, Goldman Sachs said a downturn is unlikely over the next several years. In fact, the firm’s economists stopped just short of saying that the U.S. economy is recession-proof.”
“When Barron’s gathers some of Wall Street’s best minds—as we do every January for our annual Roundtable—we expect some consensus, some disagreement…But the 10 veteran investors and economists who convened in New York on Jan. 6 at Barron’s offices agree that there’s almost no chance of a recession this year.”
“The U.S. economy is heading into 2020 at a pace of steady, sustained growth after a series of interest rate cuts and the apparent resolution of two trade-related threats mostly eliminated the risk of a recession.”
“I expect that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession in 2020.”
Recession HIGHLY UNLIKELY in 2020. And that’s mighty good news for Portland Metro home sellers and buyers.
Whether you are buying or selling, give us a call today at 971-804-4618. We know the Portland real estate market, we’re top-notch listeners, negotiators, problem solvers, and marketing pros–and we’re here for YOU.
Copyright 2020 James Bradley, Principal Broker