Portland Market Action Report October 2016

All the real estate numbers from RMLS Portland Market Action Report October 2016, plus our analysis.

The October 2016 RMLS Portland Metro Market Action Report is out, and seasonal cooling has set in.

Comparing October 2016 to October 2015, the Portland Metro real estate market cooled slightly with a decrease of -4.7 in closed sales. Inventory held steady at 2 months, home prices continued to rise, and homes sales slowed somewhat.

Southeast Portland was again the hottest area, with 309 closed sales in October. Other hot spots were West Portland (244 closed sales), Beaverton/Aloha (242 closed sales), Tigard/Wilsonville (241 closed sales) and Northeast Portland (212 closed sales).

October Market Highlights

Closed Sales (2,589) decreased 4.7% compared to October 2015 (2,717) and 8.3% compared to September 2016.

Pending Sales (2,841) decreased 5.2% compared to October 2015 (2,996) and 0.6% compared to September 2016 (2,857).

New Listings (2,929) decreased 4.4% compared to October 2015 (3,063) and 20.3% compared to September 2016 (3,673).

Inventory remained unchanged in October at 2.0 months.

Total Market Time increased in October by 6 days and is currently at 41 days.

Active Residential Listings in Portland Metro are currently at 5,169.

Average Home Price of homes sold through October 2016 ($393,900), compared to homes sold over the same period in 2015 ($353,400), increased 11.5%.

Median Home Price of homes sold through October 2016 ($345,000), compared to homes sold over the same period in 2015 ($305,000), increased 13.1%.

Let’s look at each of our three comparisons in more detail.

October-to-October in a Nutshell

October 2016 compared to October 2015:

New Listings: -4.4%
Pending Sales: -2%
Closed Sales: -4.7%
Average Sale Price: +8%
Median Sale Price: +3%
Total Market Time: -12.5%

October-to-September in a Nutshell

October 2016 compared to September 2015:

New Listings: -20.3%
Pending Sales: -3.2%
Closed Sales: -8.3%
Average Sale Price: +5%
Median Sale Price: -0.1%
Total Market Time: +1%

Year-to-Year in a Nutshell

Year-to-Date 2016 compared to Year-to-Date 2015:

New Listings: +2%
Pending Sales: -2%
Closed Sales: +3%
Average Sale Price: +9%
Median Sale Price: 3%
Total Market Time: -29.6%

October Overall in a Nutshell

New Listings Are Down & Down

New Listings decreased -4.4% compared to October 2015 and -20.3% compared to September 2016.

Pending Sales Are Down & Down

Pending Sales decreased -5.2% compared to October 2015 and -0.6% compared to September 2016.

Closed Sales Are Down & Down

Closed Sales decreased -4.7% compared to October 2015 and -8.3% compared to September 2016.

Home Prices Are Up & Down

Average Sale Price increased 12.8% compared to October 2015 and 3.5% compared to September 2016.

Median Sale Price increased 13.3% compared to October 2015 and decreased -0.1% compared to September 2016.

Total Market Time Is Up

Total Market Time increased in October to 41 days.

Total Inventory Is Down

Total Inventory remained unchanged in October 2016 at 2 months. (Six months of inventory is considered a balanced market, with fewer months of inventory indicating a seller’s market.)

Active Listings Are Down

Active Residential Listings decreased to 5,169 in October 2016, compared to 5,614 in September 2016.

Portland Metro Residential Highlights October 2016

Here’s a closer look at the October 2016 RMLS Portland Metro Market Action Report data:

Best Bets for Buyers

Steady job growth combined with low but rising mortgage rates has created greater urgency to buy homes. The gains reflect a stronger economy but also the pressure to make a purchase before both home prices and cost of borrowing put homes out of reach for many buyers. The average and median sales price for Portland homes rose 11.5% and 13.1% respectively compared to the same period in 2015.

Now is the time to buy, as prices are expected to continue the upward trend, with a 3.7% increase projected for 2017.

What we are experiencing as real estate brokers is that homes that are priced right are selling FASTER THAN FAST, often with multiple, and even cash, offers. While New Listings increased only slightly comparing year-to-year, Total Inventory is holding steady and Total Market Time is down significantly.

It’s a seller’s market. To get the home of your dreams, know what you want and be prepared to LEAP and COMPETE when you find the home that meets your criteria.

Tour the market, scour our Home Search pages (by neighborhood, style, address, map, price, listing number, new listing, or custom criteria), GET PREAPPROVED FOR A LOAN, and prepare (along with your broker) to POUNCE when the home and price are right.

To stay on top of new listings, set up a Market Alert, itemizing your home search criteria. You’ll be notified as soon as a new listing with your criteria hits the market.

Best Bets for Sellers

Even though it’s still a seller’s market, Average Sale Price and Median Sale Price are expected to increase more slowly in 2017. Additionally, according to a recent analysis from Fitch Ratings, homes in the Portland market are already about 9 percent overvalued compared to levels Fitch considers sustainable.

Buyers are cautious, demand good value, and cross-shop homes rigorously to get the most for their money. In addition, appraisers are determined to avoid another housing bubble. It’s the bank that sets the appraised value of your home.

Along with your listing broker, do the research and heed your competitive market analysis. Be realistic about your competition, and price your home to sell fast. Homes than languish on the market for over 60 days are often overlooked altogether.

Your best chance to sell your home for top dollar is in the first month it’s on the market. PERIOD.

If you price too high, brokers and buyers will move on to more realistic offerings. If you price just right, you may get multiple offers, even above your asking price.

Whether you are buying or selling, give us a call today at 971-804-4618. We know the Portland real estate market, we’re top-notch listeners, negotiators, problem solvers, and marketing pros–and we’re here for YOU.

SkyBlue Portland Market Action Reports

Portland Real Estate in the News

Oregon Live

Portland’s streak leading the nation in home-price increases is over | Front Porch
Another record-setting month for Portland-area housing market | Front Porch
Housing market cools slightly, but sales remain high and inventory low | Front Porch
New development rules would limit home sizes, encourage density | Front Porch
Portland has nation’s highest year-over-year home price increases | Front Porch
Portland home values continue to grow at nation’s fastest pace | Front Porch
Portland homes’ annual price increases lead nation – again | Front Porch
Portland homes have nation’s highest annual price increases for 3rd straight month | Front Porch
Portland-area average home sale price breaks $400,000 | Front Porch
Portland-area housing market remains ‘remarkably tight’ | Front Porch
Ultra-low inventory slows down Portland-area housing market | Front Porch

Portland Monthly

19 New Facts About Portland’s Totally Insane Real Estate Market | Portland Monthly
Neighborhoods by the Numbers | Portland Monthly
Portland Neighborhoods By The Numbers: Where to Buy in 2015 | Portland Monthly
Where to Look for Real Estate Steals in the Portland Area | Portland Monthly
Your Guide to Portland’s Crazy-Hot Real Estate Market | Portland Monthly

Market Watch

Does ‘staging’ a home lure buyers into paying more? | Market Watch
How Long Can Portland, Ore., Homes Remain Relatively Affordable? | Market Watch
Portland, Ore., Housing Market Is on a Record Roll | Market Watch
Want to sell your house without a Realtor? Read this first. | Market Watch

Fitch Ratings

Where Are U.S. Home Prices Overheating | Fitch Ratings
Why Changes in Mortgage Rates Matter For House Prices | Fitch Ratings

Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Another Housing Bubble? | Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Portland Housing Update. Are Things OK? | Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Additional

Are We Headed for a Housing Slump in 2016? | Money
How Cash Sent the Portland Home Market Spinning | Investigate West