All the real estate numbers from RMLS Portland Market Action Report November 2015, plus our analysis.
The November 2015 RMLS Portland Metro Market Action Report is out, and the numbers are a bit of a surprise.
Comparing November 2015 to November 2014 and Year-to-Date 2015 to Year-to-Date 2014, the real estate market in Portland Metro continues its upward trajectory.
However, compared to October 2015, November saw a sharp drop across almost all indicators. Which turns out to be a one time event. Here’s the reason for the drop in sales compared to October.
Closed Sales (2,153) increased 11.2% over November 2014 (1,937). This is Portland Metro’s strongest November since 2006, when 2,163 closings posted. Year-to-date closed sales (30,415) are up 19.8%. However, closed sales decreased 20.8% compared to October 2015 (2,717).
Pending Sales (2,504) increased 19.8% over November 2014 (2,091). This is Portland Metro’s strongest November since 2005, when 2,541 pending sales posted. Year-to-date pending sales (32,783) are up 23.0%. However, pending sales decreased 16.4% compared to October 2015 (2,996).
New Listings (2,148) increased 11.8% over November 2014 (1,922). However, new listings decreased 29.9% compared to October 2015 (3,063). Year-to-date new listings (39,180) are up 8.7%.
Inventory increased in November to 2 months.
Total Market Time increased in November to 52 days.
Active Residential Listings increased in November to 4,252.
Average Home Price of homes sold over the past 12 months ($353,400), compared to homes sold over the previous same 12-month period ($333,200), increased 6.1%.
Median Home Price of homes sold over the past 12 months ($306,000), compared to homes sold over the previous same 12-month period ($285,000), increased 7.4%.
The Portland real estate market continues its rise when we compare numbers across key indicators for two of our standard comparisons: November-to-November and Year-to-Year. In our third standard comparison, November-to-October, the numbers indicate a decline. But that is likely a one-time event.
Let’s take a look at each of our three comparisons in more detail.
November-to-November in a Nutshell
All indicators are improved comparing November 2015 to November 2014.
November 2015 compared to November 2014:
- New Listings: 11.8%
- Pending Sales: 19.8%
- Closed Sales: 11.2%
- Average Sale Price: 5.8%
- Median Sale Price: 8%
- Total Market Time: -24.2%
November-to-October in a Nutshell
All indicators but one (Median Sale Price) have slipped comparing November 2015 to October 2015.
November 2015 compared to October 2015:
- New Listings: -29.9%
- Pending Sales: -16.4%
- Closed Sales: -20.8%
- Average Sale Price: -1.2%
- Median Sale Price: 1.9%
- Total Market Time: 13.0%
Year-to-Year in a Nutshell
All indicators are significantly improved comparing year-to-date 2015 to year-to-date 2014.
Year-to-Date 2015 compared to Year-to-Date 2014:
- New Listings: 8.7%
- Pending Sales: 23.0%
- Closed Sales: 19.8%
- Average Sale Price: 6.1%
- Median Sale Price: 7.4%
- Total Market Time: -22.1%
November Overall in a Nutshell
New Listings Are Up & Down
New Listings increased 11.8% compared to November 2014 and decreased -29.9% compared to October 2015.
Pending Sales Are Up & Down
Pending Sales increased 19.8% compared to November 2014 and decreased -16.4% compared to October 2015.
Closed Sales Are Up & Up
Closed Sales increased 11.2% compared to November 2014 and decreased -20.8% compared to October 2015.
Home Prices Are Mostly Up
Average Sale Price increased 5.8% compared to November 2014 and decreased -1.2% compared to October 2015.
Median Sale Price increased 9.8% compared to November 2014 and 1.9% compared to October 2015.
Total Market Time Is Up
Total Market Time increased to 52 days in November, compared to 46 days in October.
Total Inventory Is Up
Inventory increased slightly in November to 2 months, compared to 1.8 months in October. (Six months of inventory is considered a balanced market, with fewer months of inventory indicating a seller’s market.)
Active Listings Are Down
There are currently 4,252 Active Residential Listings in the Portland Metro area, compared to 5,021 active listings in October.
November 2015 Real Estate Data for Portland
Here’s a closer look at the November 2015 RMLS Portland Metro Market Action Report data:
Best Bets for Buyers & Sellers
Buyers: Steady job growth combined with historically low but rising mortgage rates and steadily rising home prices are creating a greater urgency for home buyers. The gains reflect a stronger economy but also the pressure to make a purchase before both home prices and cost of borrowing put homes out of reach for many buyers. Year-to-date, the average and median sales price for Portland homes has risen 6.1% and 7.4% respectively. That rise shows no signs of slowing any time soon. There is no better time to buy a home in Portland than NOW.
Homes that are priced right are selling FASTER THAN FAST, often with multiple, and sometimes even cash, offers. While New Listings continue to increase, Total Inventory and Total Market Time continue to decrease.
It’s a seller’s market. To get the home of your dreams, know what you want and be prepared to LEAP, COMPETE, and NEGOTIATE when you find the home that meets your criteria.
Tour the market, scour our Home Search pages (by neighborhood, style, address, map, price, listing number, new listing, or custom criteria), GET PREAPPROVED FOR A LOAN, and prepare (along with your broker) to POUNCE when the home and the price are right.
To stay on top of new listings, set up a Market Alert, itemizing your home search criteria. You’ll be notified as soon as a new listing with your criteria hits the market.
Sellers: Even though it’s a seller’s market, Average Sale Price and Median Sale Price are rising moderately. Plus, according to a recent analysis from Fitch Ratings, homes in the Portland market are already about 9 percent overvalued compared to levels Fitch considers sustainable.
Buyers are eager AND cautious, demand good value, and cross-shop homes rigorously to get the most for their money. Do be prepared to NEGOTIATE. In addition, appraisers are actively working to avoid another housing bubble. It’s the bank that sets the appraised value of your home.
Along with your listing broker, do the research and heed your competitive market analysis. Be realistic about your competition, and price your home to sell fast. Homes than languish on the market for over 60 days are often overlooked altogether.
Your best chance to sell your home for top dollar is in the first month it’s on the market. PERIOD.
If you price too high, brokers and buyers will move on to more realistic offerings. If you price just right, you may get multiple offers, even above your asking price.
Whether you are buying or selling, give us a call today at 971-804-4618. We know the Portland real estate market, we’re top-notch listeners, negotiators, problem solvers, and marketing pros–and we’re here for YOU.
More Portland Market Action Reports
- Portland Market Action Report November 2015
- Portland Market Action Report May 2015
- Portland Market Action Report April 2015
- Portland Market Action Report March 2015
- Portland Market Action Report February 2015
- Portland Market Action Report August 2014
- Portland Market Action Report July 2014
- Portland Market Snapshot June 2014
- Portland Market Snapshot April 2014
- Portland Market Snapshot Q1 2014
In the News
- Home Sales Post Weakest Numbers In 19 Months, Reversing Strong 2015 Trend | Oregon Live
- How Cash Sent the Portland Home Market Spinning | Investigate West
- Milwaukie Real Estate ‘Blowing Up’ As Affordability, Orange Line Attract New Buyers | Front Porch (Oregon Live)
- Neighborhoods by the Numbers | Portland Monthly
- Portland Housing Update. Are Things OK? | Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
- Portland Neighborhoods By The Numbers: Where to Buy in 2015 | Portland Monthly
- Portland, Ore., Housing Market Is On a Record Roll | Market Watch
- Portland-area Housing Market Remains ‘Remarkably Tight’ | Front Porch (Oregon Live)
- Sellwood’s Boom Era houses: Four-Square, Hip-Roof Bungalow, Pyramid, Porch-Gable (photos) | Oregon Live
- What to Expect From the Housing Market in 2015 | Money
- Where to Look for Real Estate Steals in the Portland Area | Portland Monthly
- Your Guide to Portland’s Crazy-Hot Real Estate Market | Portland Monthly