There seems to be some concern that the 2020 economic downturn will lead to another foreclosure crisis like the one we experienced after the housing crash a little over a decade ago. However, there’s one major difference this time: a robust forbearance program.
During the housing crash of 2006-2008, many felt homeowners should be forced to pay their mortgages despite the economic hardships they were experiencing. There was no empathy for the challenges those households were facing. In a 2009 Wall Street Journal article titled Is Walking Away From Your Mortgage Immoral?, John Courson, Chief Executive of the Mortgage Bankers Association, was asked to comment on those not paying their mortgage. He famously said:
“What about the message they will send to their family and their kids?”
Courson suggested that people unable to pay their mortgage were bad parents.
What resulted from that lack of empathy? Foreclosures mounted.
This time is different. There was an immediate understanding that homeowners were faced with a challenge not of their own making. The government quickly jumped in with a mortgage forbearance program that relieved the financial burden placed on many households. The program allowed many borrowers to suspend their monthly mortgage payments until their economic condition improved. It was the right thing to do.
What happens when forbearance programs expire?
Some analysts are concerned many homeowners will not be able to make up the back payments once their forbearance plans expire. They’re concerned the situation will lead to an onslaught of foreclosures.
The banks and the government learned from the challenges the country experienced during the housing crash. They don’t want a surge of foreclosures again. For that reason, they’ve put in place alternative ways homeowners can pay back the money owed over an extended period of time.
Another major difference is that, unlike 2006-2008, today’s homeowners are sitting on a record amount of equity. That equity will enable them to sell their houses and walk away with cash instead of going through foreclosure.
The differences mentioned above will be the reason we’ll avert a surge of foreclosures. As Ivy Zelman, a highly respected thought leader for housing and CEO of Zelman & Associates, said:
“The likelihood of us having a foreclosure crisis again is about zero percent.”
Moving Forward Together
We’re in uncharted territory with Covid-19. The medical facts about the virus change daily. Meanwhile, the media generates a constant stream of fear inducing headlines. This combination can be overwhelming. To stay grounded during these uncertain times, it serves us well to recall a line delivered by F.D.R during his inauguration speech in 1933 – “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” This phrase, at the height of the great depression, gave people hope and a new way to look at a world wide depression that had been going on for three years. Ultimately, this phrase served as one of the pillars that led to the rebuilding of the economy.
Our mission is to provide you with accurate timely information about the real estate market. We follow the best minds in the real estate and share that information with you as it becomes available. Armed with actionable information, you can set aside fear and actively plan for your future. To that end, we’re here for you. Let’s get together for an online meeting to review the market and how it relates to your situation. To be clear this isn’t a sales call — this is one of the ways that our team gives back in these challenging times. To schedule a chat, click the Let’s Talk link and schedule a time that works for you: Let’s Talk.
Like you, we’re counting the days till life returns to normal and we can once again go to Powell’s Books, our favorite restaurants, the beach, the mountains, and all the activities that make Portland an incredible place to live. In the meantime, we’re here for you … stay safe out there … James Bradley